Predictive recommendation system using absolute relevance

ABSTRACT

In general, embodiments of the present invention provide systems, methods and computer readable media for ranking promotions selected for recommendation to consumers based on predictions of promotion performance and consumer behavior. In embodiments, a set of promotions to be recommended to a consumer can be sorted and/or ranked according to respective relevance scores representing a probability that the consumer&#39;s behavior in response to the promotion will match a ranking target. In embodiments, calculating scores is based on a relevance model (a predictive function) derived from one or more contextual data sources representing attributes of promotions and consumer behavior. In embodiments, an absolute relevance score represents an absolute prediction of a ranking target variable. In embodiments, absolute relevance may be used to determine personalized local merchant discovery frontiers; featured result set thresholding for impressions; and/or promotion notification triggers. In embodiments, predictive models based on gross revenue may be optimized using promotion category-dependent price boosting.

CROSS-REFERENCE TO RELATED APPLICATIONS

This application is a continuation of U.S. application Ser. No.14/231,362, entitled “PREDICTIVE RECOMMENDATION SYSTEM USING ABSOLUTERELEVANCE,” filed Mar. 31, 2014, which claims the benefit of U.S.Provisional Application No. 61/908,599, entitled “PREDICTIVERECOMMENDATION SYSTEM USING CONTEXTUAL RELEVANCE,” filed Nov. 25, 2013,and of U.S. Provisional Application No. 61/921,310, entitled “METHOD ANDSYSTEM FOR PROVIDING IMPRESSIONS USING ABSOLUTE RELEVANCE,” filed Dec.27, 2013, the entire contents of which are hereby incorporated byreference.

This application is related to the following concurrently filed,co-pending, and commonly assigned applications: Attorney Docket Number058407/444349, U.S. application Ser. No. 14/231,222, filed Mar. 31,2014, entitled “PREDICTIVE RECOMMENDATION SYSTEM USING CONTEXTUALRELEVANCE,” and Attorney Docket Number 058407/443470, U.S. applicationSer. No. 14/231,285, filed Mar. 31, 2014, entitled “PREDICTIVERECOMMENDATION SYSTEM USING PRICE BOOSTING,” all listing Lawrence LeeWai as inventor.

FIELD

Embodiments of the invention relate, generally, to a predictiverecommendation system using predictive models generated from relevancedata sources.

BACKGROUND

Current methods for recommending promotions to consumers for purchaseexhibit a plurality of problems that make current systems insufficient,ineffective and/or the like. Through applied effort, ingenuity, andinnovation, solutions to improve such methods have been realized and aredescribed in connection with embodiments of the present invention.

SUMMARY

The capability to recommend promotions for purchase that are mostrelevant to each consumer is important for a promotion and marketingservice, because maintaining an active and engaged customer base meansmaximizing profits. In some embodiments, a relevance system is used toselect promotions to be recommended to a consumer (i.e., the availablepromotions that are most relevant to the consumer) based on using storeddata representing attributes of promotions and/or the consumer, and isperformed by executing a workflow that specifies a sequence of filteringrules and/or algorithms to be applied in selecting the relevantpromotions.

As such, and according to some example embodiments, the systems andmethods described herein are therefore configured to rank promotionsselected for recommendation to consumers based on predictions ofpromotion performance and consumer behavior. The top-ranked promotionsmay be featured in a presentation to the consumer.

In some embodiments, each of a set of available promotions to berecommended to a particular consumer can be sorted and/or rankedaccording to a probability that the consumer's behavior in response tothe promotion will match a ranking target (e.g., conversion rate, grossrevenue). In some embodiments, promotions available to a consumer areranked based on a relevance model derived from one or more data sourcesrepresenting attributes of promotions and consumer behavior. Using themodel, each promotion is associated with a relevance score thatrepresents the probability that the consumer's behavior with respect tothe promotion will approach the ranking target while the consumerinteracts with an impression containing content describing thepromotion. In some embodiments, the set of promotions selected forrecommendation to a consumer can be sorted and/or ranked based on theirrespective associated relevance scores.

In embodiments, the relevance model may be a predictive function. Insome embodiments, the predictive function may be a trainable functionthat is developed using machine learning. In some embodiments, thepredictive function may be generated offline using supervised learningin a set of modeling stages in which the function is adapted based ontraining data sets of features that are extracted from a set of datasources (e.g., log data, promotion and user attribute data). In someembodiments, the set of data sources includes contextual data sources.In embodiments, examples of contextual data sources for mobile consumersmay include user locations (prior, current, or potential) and theirassociated categories of interest; prior promotion interest level shownby the consumer; and prior promotion subcategory interest level.

Recommendation engines are significantly different from search enginesin that the consumer expects that the returned recommendations should berelevant in an absolute sense. In embodiments, absolute relevance can bedefined as an absolute prediction of a ranking target variable, e.g.,the probability that the consumer will purchase a particular promotion,or the probability that the consumer will click on content within animpression that represents a particular promotion. In some embodiments,calculating absolute relevance may include optimizing the promotiondiscovery region selection for promotions local to a consumer. In someembodiments, absolute relevance may be used to determine personalizedlocal merchant discovery frontiers for consumers, personalized featuredresult set thresholding for impressions shown to consumers, and/orpersonalized promotion notification triggers for consumers.

In embodiments, predictive models based on gross revenue (e.g., measuredas bookings) may be optimized using promotion category-dependent priceboosting. Each promotion relevance score, calculated based on a grossrevenue model, is adjusted using a category-dependent conversion ratemultiplier that is characterized by a price threshold that is used tocap the promotion price. For relevance scores calculated based onbookings per impression, the adjusted relevance score thus represents anestimated minimum quantity of bookings per impression for the promotion.In some embodiments, price boosting optimization using the conversionrate multiplier is only applied to relevance scoring of promotionsavailable to highly engaged consumers.

The details of one or more embodiments of the subject matter describedin this specification are set forth in the accompanying drawings and thedescription below. Other features, aspects, and advantages of thesubject matter will become apparent from the description, the drawings,and the claims.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE SEVERAL VIEWS OF THE DRAWING(S)

Having thus described the invention in general terms, reference will nowbe made to the accompanying drawings, which are not necessarily drawn toscale, and wherein:

FIG. 1 illustrates an example system that can be configured to implementthe relevance ranking of promotions that are available from a promotionand marketing service and are to be recommended to a particular consumerin accordance with some embodiments discussed herein;

FIG. 2 is a flow diagram of an example method for generating and rankinga set of promotions to be recommended to a consumer in accordance withsome embodiments discussed herein;

FIG. 3 is a diagram of an exemplary overview process for generating arelevance model derived from contextual data sources and, based on themodel, calculating a contextual relevance score for each of a set ofavailable promotions to a mobile consumer during a workflow inaccordance with some embodiments discussed herein;

FIG. 4 is an illustration of an exemplary process 400 for generating apredictive relevance model that will be used in a workflow calculating acontextual relevance score in accordance with some embodiments discussedherein;

FIG. 5 illustrates an exemplary random forest predictive consumerconversion model for a ranking target of orders per thousand impressionsin accordance with some embodiments discussed herein;

FIG. 6 illustrates an example lifecycle model of consumer interactionbehavior with a mobile application that presents promotions availablefrom a promotion and marketing service in accordance with someembodiments discussed herein;

FIG. 7 illustrates the logic for an exemplary combination random forestpredictive model used to calculate a contextual relevance score for apromotion to be shown in an impression to a particular consumer inaccordance with some embodiments discussed herein;

FIG. 8 is a flow diagram of an example method for generating and rankinga set of promotions to be recommended to a consumer using a relevancemodel that is determined based on the consumer lifecycle state inaccordance with some embodiments discussed herein;

FIG. 9 is an illustration of an exemplary workflow for testing theperformance of contextual relevance predictive models with someembodiments discussed herein;

FIG. 10 is a flow diagram of an example method for using absoluterelevance thresholding to optimize the discovery region for localpromotions available to a consumer in accordance with some embodimentsdiscussed herein;

FIG. 11 is a flow diagram of an example method for optimizing promotiondiscovery region selection for local promotions available to a consumerin accordance with some embodiments discussed herein;

FIG. 12 illustrates exemplary local merchant discovery frontiers for twoexemplary consumers in accordance with some embodiments discussedherein;

FIG. 13 illustrates an example of featured result set thresholding usingabsolute relevance in accordance with some embodiments discussed herein;

FIG. 14 illustrates and example of two personalized promotionnotification triggers optimized for a consumer based on the consumer'spredicted absolute conversion rates for a set of available promotions inaccordance with some embodiments discussed herein;

FIG. 15 illustrates an example of a category-dependent price boostingoptimization for relevance scoring of promotions in accordance with someembodiments discussed herein;

FIG. 16 is a flow diagram of an example method for using a priceboosting optimization for relevance scoring of promotions in accordancewith some embodiments discussed herein;

FIG. 17 is a flow diagram of an example method for adjusting a promotionrelevance score using price boosting in accordance with some embodimentsdiscussed herein;

FIG. 18 illustrates an example of a second version of a price boostingoptimization for relevance scoring of promotions in accordance with someembodiments discussed herein;

FIG. 19 is an exemplary chart that illustrates the distribution ofbookings by price range for 7 promotion categories in accordance withsome embodiments discussed herein; and

FIG. 20 illustrates a schematic block diagram of circuitry that can beincluded in a computing device, such as a recommendation engine, inaccordance with some embodiments discussed herein.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION

The present invention now will be described more fully hereinafter withreference to the accompanying drawings, in which some, but not allembodiments of the invention are shown. Indeed, this invention may beembodied in many different forms and should not be construed as beinglimited to the embodiments set forth herein; rather, these embodimentsare provided so that this disclosure will satisfy applicable legalrequirements. Like numbers refer to like elements throughout.

As described herein, system components can be communicatively coupled toone or more of each other. Though the components are described as beingseparate or distinct, two or more of the components may be combined intoa single process or routine. The component functional descriptionsprovided herein including separation of responsibility for distinctfunctions is by way of example. Other groupings or other divisions offunctional responsibilities can be made as necessary or in accordancewith design preferences.

As used herein, the terms “data,” “content,” “information” and similarterms may be used interchangeably to refer to data capable of beingcaptured, transmitted, received, displayed and/or stored in accordancewith various example embodiments. Thus, use of any such terms should notbe taken to limit the spirit and scope of the disclosure. Further, wherea computing device is described herein to receive data from anothercomputing device, the data may be received directly from the anothercomputing device or may be received indirectly via one or moreintermediary computing devices, such as, for example, one or moreservers, relays, routers, network access points, base stations, and/orthe like. Similarly, where a computing device is described herein tosend data to another computing device, the data may be sent directly tothe another computing device or may be sent indirectly via one or moreintermediary computing devices, such as, for example, one or moreservers, relays, routers, network access points, base stations, and/orthe like.

As used herein, the term “promotion and marketing service” may refer,without limitation, to a service that is accessible via one or morecomputing devices and is operable to provide example promotion and/ormarketing services on behalf of one or more providers that are offeringone or more instruments that are redeemable for goods, services,experiences and/or the like. The promotion and marketing service isfurther configured to illustrate or otherwise inform one or moreconsumers of the availability of one or more instruments in the form ofone or more impressions. In some examples, the promotion and marketingservice may also take the form of a redemption authority, a paymentprocessor, a rewards provider, an entity in a financial network, apromoter, an agent and/or the like. As such, the service is, in someexample embodiments, configured to present one or more promotions viaone or more impressions, accept payments for promotions from consumers,issue instruments upon acceptance of an offer, participate inredemption, generate rewards, provide a point of sale device or service,issue payments to providers and/or or otherwise participate in theexchange of goods, services or experiences for currency, value and/orthe like.

As used herein, the term “provider” may be used to refer, withoutlimitation, to a merchant, business owner, consigner, shopkeeper,tradesperson, vender, operator, entrepreneur, agent, dealer,organization or the like that is in the business of a providing a good,service or experience to a consumer, facilitating the provision of agood, service or experience to a consumer and/or otherwise operating inthe stream of commerce. For example, a provider may be in the form of arunning company that sells attire that is generally used by a person whoruns or participates in athletic activities.

As used herein, the terms “promotion,” “offer,” “deal” and similar termsmay be used interchangeably to refer, without limitation, to any type ofoffered, presented or otherwise indicated reward, discount, coupon,credit, incentive, discount, media or the like that is indicative of apromotional value or the like that upon purchase or acceptance resultsin the issuance of an instrument that may be used toward at least aportion of the purchase of particular goods, services and/or experiencesdefined by the promotion. An example promotion, using the aforementionedrunning company as the example provider, is $25 for $50 toward runningshoes. In some examples, the promotion defines an accepted value (e.g.,a cost to purchase the promotion), a promotional value (e.g., the valueof the resultant instrument beyond the accepted value), a residual value(e.g., the value upon return or upon expiry of one or more redemptionparameters), one or more redemptions parameters and/or the like. Forexample, and using the running company promotion as an example, theaccepted value is $25 and the promotional value is $50. In this example,the residual value may be equal to the accepted value.

As used herein, the term “instrument” may be used, without limitation,to refer to any type of gift card, tender, electronic certificate,medium of exchange, voucher, or the like that embodies the terms of thepromotion from which the instrument resulted and may be used toward atleast a portion of the purchase, acquisition, procurement, consumptionor the like of goods, services and/or experiences. In some examples, theinstrument may take the form of tender that has a given value that isexchangeable for goods, services and/or experiences and/or a reductionin a purchase price of a particular good, service or experience. In someexamples, the instrument may have multiple values, such as acceptedvalue, a promotional value and/or a residual value. For example, usingthe aforementioned running company as the example provider, anelectronic indication in a mobile application that shows $50 of value tospend at the running company. In some examples, the accepted value ofthe instrument is defined by the value exchanged for the instrument. Insome examples, the promotional value is defined by the promotion fromwhich the instrument resulted and is the value of the instrument beyondthe accepted value. In some examples, the residual value is the valueafter redemption, the value after the expiry or other violation of aredemption parameter, the return or exchange value of the instrumentand/or the like.

As used herein, the term “impression” may be used, without limitation,to refer to a communication, a display, or other perceived indication,such as a flyer, print media, e-mail, text message, application alert,mobile applications, other type of electronic interface or distributionchannel and/or the like, of one or more promotions. For example, andusing the aforementioned running company as the example provider, ane-mail communication sent to consumers that indicates the availabilityof a $25 for $50 toward running shoes promotion.

As used herein, the terms “consumer” and “customer” may be usedinterchangeably to refer, without limitation, to a client, customer,purchaser, shopper, user or the like who may be in the position to ordoes exchange value for one or more instruments under the terms definedby the one or promotions. For example, and using the aforementionedrunning company as the example provider, an individual who is interestedin purchasing running shoes.

FIG. 1 illustrates an example system 100 that can be configured toimplement the relevance ranking of promotions that are available from apromotion and marketing service and are to be recommended to aparticular consumer (i.e., “user”). System 100 comprises a relevanceservice 110 that returns a set of available promotions 112 that areranked for relevance to a consumer in response to receiving a request102 for available promotions on behalf of the consumer; a user profilesrepository 120 in which data representing profile attributes ofconsumers are stored; a promotions repository 130 in which datarepresenting attributes of promotions are stored; a user activationstates repository 140 in which data representing consumer activationstates respectively associated with consumers are stored; and a userbehavioral data repository 150 in which historical data representing therespective consumer behavior of consumers are stored. The relevanceservice 110 includes a recommendation engine 115 that is configured toselect available promotions to be recommended to a particular consumer.

In some embodiments, recommendation engine 115 generates a set ofavailable promotions that are most relevant to a consumer in response toreceiving consumer identification data representing the consumer. Insome embodiments, generating the set of available promotions includesselecting the promotions using stored data representing attributes ofpromotions and/or the consumer, and is performed by executing a workflowthat specifies a sequence of filtering rules and/or algorithms to beapplied in selecting the relevant promotions. A workflow may includeranking the selected promotions for relevance to the consumer and thenordering the selected promotions based on their respective rankings. Insome embodiments, the most highly ranked promotions may be presented tothe consumer as featured recommended promotions.

FIG. 2 is a flow diagram of an example method 200 for generating andranking a set of promotions to be recommended to a consumer. Forconvenience, the method 200 will be described with respect to a system,including one or more computing devices, that performs the method 200.Specifically, the method 200 will be described with respect to itsimplementation by recommendation engine 115 in system 100.

In embodiments, the system receives 205 input data representing arequest from a consumer. The input data can include consumeridentification data. In some embodiments, for example, the consumeridentification data may include a unique consumer identifier (e.g., alogin identifier that is provided by a consumer when the consumerinteracts with the content) and/or at least one consumer-associatedbcookie, which is a unique identifier of a device (e.g., a mobile phone,a tablet, or a personal computer) and/or a mobile application or browserfrom which the consumer accesses the content. Identifying a consumerthrough associated bcookies ensures that a wider variety of behavioraldata may be collected from the consumer since not all types of consumeraccess to content require the consumer to first provide a uniqueidentifier.

In embodiments, the system receives 210 user data describing attributesof the consumer. In some embodiments, the user data may includehistorical data representing the consumer's previous consumer behavioras described, for example, in U.S. patent application Ser. No.13/929,977 entitled “Predictive Recommendation System,” filed on Jun.28, 2013, and which is incorporated herein in its entirety. In someembodiments, the behavioral data that is collected from a particularconsumer can be associated with that consumer's identification data sothat a collection of multiple instances of behavior from a singleconsumer may be stored as history data in a consumer behavioral datarepository 150. Examples of collected consumer behavioral data includeinstances of consumer engagement with published content (e.g., instancesin which a consumer opens a mobile application, clicks on and/or opensan email, or visits a website), and consumer activation state (e.g.,instances in which a consumer makes a promotion purchase).

In embodiments, the system receives 410 promotion data describingattributes of a set of promotions that currently are available to theconsumer. In some embodiments, the set of available promotions areselected in response to a search query that is executed againstpromotions data, stored a promotions repository 130, describingattributes of promotions in a promotions inventory. In some embodiments,the promotions repository 150 may be a implemented within a searchplatform (e.g., open-source Apache Solr, seehttps://lucene.apache.org/solr/), and the search query may include a setof promotion attributes as well as consumer attributes described in thereceived input data and/or the received user data. Additionally and/oralternatively, in some embodiments, the set of promotions may beselected by executing a sequence of filtering rules and/or algorithmsthat are applied to one or a combination of the promotions data, theinput data, and/or the user data.

In embodiments, the system calculates 220 a contextual relevance scorefor each of the set of available promotions. In some embodiments, thesystem calculates the contextual relevance score for each availablepromotion using one or a combination of the input data, the promotiondata, and the user data and based on at least one relevance modelderived from a set of contextual data sources. In embodiments, thecontextual relevance score represents a predicted probability that theconsumer will purchase the promotion if the promotion is included in thecontent of an impression distributed to the consumer. The contextualdata sources, relevance models, and contextual relevance scores will bediscussed in detail below with reference to FIGS. 3-8.

In embodiments, the system ranks 225 the set of available promotionsbased on their respective contextual relevance scores using a relevancemodel. In some embodiments, each of a set of available promotions to berecommended to a particular consumer can be ranked, based on datarepresenting the promotion's performance and the consumer's behavior,according to a probability that the consumer's behavior in response tothe promotion will match a ranking target. Ranking targets will bediscussed in detail below with reference to FIGS. 5-8.

In some embodiments, each promotion is represented by a feature vectorthat includes feature data representing attributes of the promotion andattributes of the consumer. In some embodiments, the feature dataelements of the feature vector are selected based on the ranking target.There is a variety of well-known types of predictive functions (e.g.,clustering algorithms, classifiers, neural networks, ensemble of trees),and the implementation choice of predictive function is not critical tothe invention.

FIG. 3 is a diagram of an exemplary overview process 300 for generatinga relevance model derived from contextual data sources and, based on themodel, calculating a contextual relevance score for each of a set ofavailable promotions to a mobile consumer during a workflow. Contextualmobile relevance generally refers to mobile relevance based on thecontext (e.g., the where/when/how/who/why) within which a request forpromotions on behalf of a consumer occurs. In embodiments, examples ofcontextual data sources for mobile consumers may include user locations(prior, current, or potential) and their associated categories ofinterest; prior promotion interest level shown by the consumer; andprior promotion subcategory interest level.

In some embodiments, the relevance model can be generated offline usingsupervised learning. In a typical supervised learning scenario, apredictive function that maps an input value to one of a set ofpredefined output values is adapted, in response to exposure to atraining data set containing examples of inputs and their respectiveassociated outputs, to perform a mapping that represents a particularpredictive model. In some embodiments, the predictive function maps datarepresenting the promotion's performance and the consumer's behavior toone of a set of probability classes, each class representing a differentprobability that the data matches a ranking target.

In some embodiments, the predictive function may be generated offlineusing machine learning in a set of modeling stages 320 in which thefunction is adapted (e.g., in stage 325) based on a set of features thatare extracted (e.g., in stages 321, 322, and 323) from a set of datasources (e.g., log data, promotion and user attribute data). In someembodiments, the set of data sources includes contextual data sources.

FIG. 4 is an illustration of an exemplary process 400 for generating apredictive relevance model that will be used in a workflow calculating acontextual relevance score. Specifically, process 400 may be implementedin the modeling stages 320 and used in one or more of the workflowstages 340 of process 300.

In embodiments, the predictive model feature data source 410 includesmethods for extracting feature data values from a set of data sourcesreceived during a set of data collection stages (e.g., stages 321, 322,and 323 in FIG. 3). In embodiments in which the predictive modelrepresents a mobile consumer, the features can include attributes of theconsumer (e.g., bcookie engagement/activation state, distance fromcookie to promotion); attributes of the promotion (e.g., promotioncategory, promotion price); and consumer behavior of a particularconsumer (e.g., # impressions of the promotion for the bcookie) and/orhistorical behavior data collected from a sample of consumers (e.g.,clicks per impression of the promotion (all bcookies).

In some embodiments, a feature set is aggregated (e.g., stage 324) toproduce feature vectors to be used as input for predictive functions.Each of the feature vectors has reduced dimensionality and optimallyrepresents the model of the ranking target associated with thepredictive function. For example, in some embodiments in which the typeof predictive function is an ensemble of trees, a random forestalgorithm is used to produce 10 tree ensembles with a maximum of 20nodes per tree. The random forest algorithm generates a ranking targetmodel as output, as well as calculates the relative importance of eachof the features used in the model. Extracting feature data values isdiscussed in further detail in U.S. patent application Ser. No.13/929,977.

The generated predictive model (e.g., models 336 and 338 in FIG. 3) isrepresented by a predictive model definition file 430, which isgenerated by a predictive model builder 420. In embodiments, thepredictive model 440, including the predictive model definition file 430and predictive model feature data source 410, may be accessed byrecommendation engine 115 for data feature extraction and calculation ofa contextual relevance score during a runtime workflow stage 450 (e.g.scoring stage 344 in FIG. 3).

In some embodiments, a generated predictive model definition 430 can berepresented in Predictive Model Markup Language (PMML), an industrystandard language. The PMML model representation can be created from aninput model configuration using a third party modeling package, such asthe open-source R application (http://www.r-project.org). The resultingmodel representation 430 can be deployed to a variety of differentsystems and platforms, since PMML can be processed by any implementationof an open-source Java PMML API (jpmml, see http://www.jpmml.org). Insome embodiments, a predictive model definition is JavaScript ObjectNotation (JASON) file that can include one or more PMML modeldefinitions, feature definitions, a decision tree for use in selecting amodel definition, and/or model definition creation information.

FIG. 5 illustrates an exemplary random forest predictive consumerconversion model 500 for a ranking target of orders per thousandimpressions (opmi). The conversion model is based on two features:promotion price and promotion distance from the consumer's location, andgenerates an output prediction of the probability that a consumer willpurchase a promotion as a result of showing the impression to theconsumer.

The exemplary random forest 500 is composed of two trees, and theprediction of the random forest is the average of the predictions fromthe two trees. The prediction from a tree is determined by beginning atthe root node decision (i.e., “is price >$30” for tree 1 and “isprice >$60” for tree 2) and then traversing a logic path through thetree to a terminal leaf node based on the decision outcome determined ateach successive node along the path. For example, if a promotion costs$20 and is located 8 miles away from the consumer, we would obtain aprediction of 2.69 orders per thousand impressions from traversing alogic path through tree 1, and we would obtain a prediction of 1.79orders per thousand impressions from traversing a logic path throughtree 2. The exemplary random forest prediction is the average of therespective predictions from tree 1 and tree 2, i.e. (2.69+1.79)/2=2.24orders per thousand impressions, or a 0.224% chance of conversion.

FIG. 6 illustrates an example lifecycle model 600 of consumerinteraction behavior with a mobile application (“app”) that presentspromotions available from a promotion and marketing service. Inembodiments, a model representing states of a typical consumer lifecyclemay be determined based on historical behavioral data that has beencollected from a large sample of consumers. In some embodiments, each ofa set of available promotions to be recommended to a particular mobileapp consumer can be ranked, based on data representing the promotion'sperformance and the consumer's behavior, according to a probability thatthe consumer's behavior in response to the promotion will match aranking target representing an increase the consumer's lifecycle modelstate engagement and/or activation level.

The example lifecycle model 600 includes seven consumer lifecycle modelstates (610 a-g); each state represents relative levels of a consumer'sengagement 602 and activation 604 while the consumer interacts with theapp. The states along the bottom row (610 a-d) have not been activated,i.e., the consumer has not made a promotion purchase while interactingwith the app. The states along the top row (610 e-g) have beenactivated, i.e., the consumer has made a promotion purchase whileinteracting with the app. In some embodiments, the level of engagementrepresented by a state is determined by the amount of time that haselapsed since the consumer's previous interaction with the app. Thelifecycle model 600 includes three relative engagement levels: Current(i.e., no time has elapsed), as represented by states 610 a, 610 b, and610 e; Moderate (i.e., a first predetermined time window, e.g., 14 days,has elapsed); and Inactive (i.e., a second predetermined time window,e.g., 30 days, has elapsed).

As illustrated in FIG. 6, an arrow between two states represents apossible consumer sate transition that may occur during the lifecycle ofa particular consumer's interactions with the app. Each solid line arrowdepicts a state transition in which the relative level of consumerengagement increases or is maintained, while each dotted line arrowdepicts a state transition in which the relative level of consumerengagement decreases.

As illustrated in FIG. 6, the transition to state 610 e (activated, notlapsed) in the lifecycle model 600 potentially can occur from any of theother states (610 a-d, 610 f-g). In embodiments, it has been determinedthat, based on marketing data, a transition to state 610 e includesincreasing the relative level of consumer engagement 602. Thus, if ananalysis of a particular consumer's behavior determines that a consumeris in a model state other than 610 e, increasing the levels ofengagement and/or activation of the consumer would be desirable tofacilitate a transition from that model state to 610 e. In someembodiments, a particular consumer's current lifecycle model state,determined by the consumer's past consumer behavior, can be used todetermine a ranking of currently available promotions to be recommendedto the consumer. The ranking may be based on a predicted probabilitythat the consumer's interaction with information about the promotionspresented in the app will result in an increase in the consumer'sengagement and/or activation level and/or result in the consumer'spurchase of a promotion. Thus, a lifecycle model based on consumers'past behavior can enable a promotion and marketing service to establisha positive feedback loop to optimize the overall levels of engagementand activation of current consumers.

FIG. 7 illustrates the logic 700 for an exemplary combination randomforest predictive model used to calculate a contextual relevance scorefor a promotion to be shown in an impression to a particular consumer.In embodiments, a combination random forest predictive model includesmultiple random forest models, each representing a different contextualdata source. Adding random forest models to the overall predictive modelimproves the predictive capability of the overall model, because thefeatures used as input to the model can be derived from a larger numberof data sources.

For example, in embodiments, a random forest model for which logic 700may be applied is a combination of 10 random forests, each with 10trees. The 10 random forests consisted of 5 random forests forconversion rate (applied to not logged-in users), and 5 random forestsfor gross revenue rate (applied to logged-in users). The 5 randomforests applied per user were as follows: travel, shopping, restaurant,other promotions with distance defined, other promotions with nodistance defined. The trees were restricted to a maximum of 20 nodes;this means that for a typical consumer-promotion pair, there would beabout 50 nodes computed (5 decision nodes per tree times 10 trees in theensemble). If there were 1000 available promotions selected for theconsumer from a promotion inventory, the combination random forest modelwould be used to compute a relevance score for each of the promotions inresponse to each request from the consumer.

FIG. 8 is a flow diagram of an example method 800 for generating andranking a set of promotions to be recommended to a consumer using arelevance model that is determined based on the consumer lifecyclestate. For convenience, the method 800 will be described with respect toa system, including one or more computing devices, that performs themethod 800. Specifically, the method 800 will be described with respectto its implementation within the workflow stages 340 in process 300.

In embodiments, the system receives 805 user data describing attributesof a consumer and receives 810 promotion data describing attributes of aset of available promotions for the consumer in the same way aspreviously described for steps 210 and 215 in method 200. In someembodiments, the received user data may include input data, as describedfor step 205 in method 200. In some embodiments, the received user dataand received promotion data may include contextual data.

In embodiments, the system performs 815 feature extraction on thereceived user and promotion data, as previously described with referenceto FIGS. 3 and 4.

In embodiments, the system determines 820 whether the consumer is loggedin and/or activated based on the received user data. In an instance inwhich the consumer is determined to be logged in and/or activated, thesystem calculates 825 a gross revenue model relevance score for each ofthe set of available promotions based on a gross revenue predictivemodel using the extracted features. In an instance in which the consumeris determined not to be logged in and/or activated, the systemcalculates 830 a gross revenue model relevance score for each of the setof available promotions based on a conversion predictive model using theextracted features. In some embodiments, the system calculates therespective relevance scores of each of the set of available promotionsusing a combination random forest predictive model as described withreference to FIG. 7, and the selection of a the gross revenue predictivemodel or the conversion predictive model is implemented by executingexemplary logic 700.

In embodiments, the system ranks 835 the set of available promotionsbased on their respective relevance scores in the same way as previouslydescribed for step 225 in method 200.

FIG. 9 is an illustration of an exemplary workflow 900 for testing theperformance of contextual relevance predictive models. In someembodiments, workflow 900 may be included in the workflow stages 340 ofprocess 300, and implemented by recommendation engine 115. For clarityand without limitation, workflow 900 will be described with reference toembodiments implementing mobile relevance predictive modeling.

In embodiments, workflow 900 may be used to test predictive models basedon features extracted from two contextual data sources: consumerlocations (prior, current, or potential), and associated promotioncategories of interest; and promotion subcategory consumer interestlevel. In embodiments, a mobile consumer's locations can be determinedduring the user location stage 901. Examples of a mobile consumer'sprior, current, or potential locations may include:

-   -   home (prior)    -   work (prior)    -   device GPS (current)    -   downtown locations (or other hot spots) within the selected        geographic region (potential)    -   locations of merchants for which the user has already purchased        instruments (prior)

In general, each type of consumer location will be associated with oneor more particular promotion categories. For example, a consumer who isplanning a trip to Las Vegas is more likely to be interested inrestaurants or tickets and less likely to be interested in duct cleaningor tire rotation. The consumer also is more likely to be interested in apromotion offered at a hot spot location (e.g., the Las Vegas “strip”)than in a promotion offered at a location on the outskirts of town.Table 1 summarizes examples of suburb and travel use cases representingprior, current, or potential locations that can be associated with amobile consumer.

TABLE 1 Mobile Suburb and Travel Use Cases selected relevant home GPSplace hotspot use case categories Mountain Palo Santa downtown weekendrestaurant, View Alto Cruz Santa Cruz outing tickets Mountain SeaTacSeattle Pioneer traveling restaurant, View Square tickets Mountain PaloSan n/a general all View Alto Jose interest Mountain Palo Las theplanning restaurant, View Alto Vegas “strip” travel tickets MountainPalo New Times planning restaurant, View Alto York Square travel tickets

In embodiments, mobile suburb and travel predictive modeling may betested, using workflow 900, in a combination of the user location stage901, distance computation stage 902, and/or the sorting stage 907.

For example, in some embodiments, an experiment testing a mobile suburband travel use case may be implemented as follows:

-   -   1. Use consumer places (home/work)+GPS lat/long for computing        minimum distance to promotion (used for distance in relevance        scoring)    -   2. If home/work is >16 miles from selected division center, and        the promotion is restaurant/tickets/travel, then also include        division center for computing minimum distance. If home/work is        not known, then use GPS lat/long >16 miles from selected        division center in previous logic.    -   3. Demote online promotions if selected division is not the        user's home division (division closest to the user's home). If        home is not known, then don't demote online promotions in any        case.

One reason for demoting online promotions is that the consumer hasdemonstrated intent to see local promotions in a selected geographicregion if the consumer explicitly selects a geographic region that isnot close to home. Since the online promotions are national, theconsumer will see them in any case without demotion when selecting theirhome region.

In embodiments, prior consumer promotion interest level may beconsidered a type of promotion “freshness” data feature that is basedupon how many impressions of a promotion have been seen by a consumer sofar (i.e., the more impressions of a promotion that have been seen by aconsumer, the less fresh the promotion). A promotion determined to havelower promotion freshness is demoted in relevancy).

In embodiments, one or more promotion freshness data features may bedetermined in deal freshness stage 905. In some embodiments, freshnessdata also may include data indicating that the consumer is interested inpurchasing the promotion (e.g., positive feedback signaled by a click onthe impression and/or receiving a consumer request for a more detailedview of the promotion). In this case, a promotion that may have lowfreshness due to being shown in multiple previous impressions may bepromoted due to the positive feedback from the consumer's priorpromotion interest. In some embodiments, the freshness data feature isinput into a mobile predictive model along with other key features(e.g., price, distance, purchase history, and DDO) so that theimportance of the prior interest will be properly weighted taking intoaccount the correlations with all the other features.

For example, consider the previous two impressions of a promotion shownto a consumer. If the consumer clicked on the promotion both times, thenthe prior interest level defined to be 2. If the consumer only clickedon the promotion the last time they saw the promotion, then the priorinterest level is defined to be 1. If the consumer didn't click on thepromotion for either of the previous two impressions, then the priorinterest level is defined to be −2. If the consumer didn't click on thepromotion just for the last time they saw the promotion, then define theprior interest level is defined to be −1. If the consumer didn't see thepromotion yet, the prior interest level is defined to be 0.

In embodiments, experiments have demonstrated a strong correlationbetween conversion rate and the consumer's prior interest level, asmeasured in terms of prior consumer clicking on the promotion inpreviously shown impressions. If the consumer clicked on the promotionin the previous impression, then the conversion rate is about 10×. Ifthe consumer has not seen the promotion yet, then the conversion rate isabout a factor of 2 higher than if the consumer didn't click on thepromotion for the last 2 impressions.

In some embodiments, prior promotion interest level may be tested as areplacement for the deal freshness stage 905 in exemplary workflow 900.

In embodiments, prior subcategory interest level is data featurerepresenting whether a consumer previously has expressed interest in aparticular promotion subcategory. Exemplary subcategory interest levelsfor a consumer include:

-   -   1. never purchased anything or not logged in    -   2. purchased something, but not in this category    -   3. purchased something in this category, but not in this        subcategory    -   4. purchased something in this subcategory before

In some embodiments, subcategory interest level can be incorporated intoa conversion rate predicted by a mobile consumer lifecycle model (e.g.,mobile consumer lifecycle model 600). In some embodiments, subcategoryinterest level may be tested by incorporating it into the promotionconversion rate modeling stages 904 in exemplary workflow 900.

For example, in embodiments, one million bcookies were sampled fromNorth America over a particular time period. The bcookies were dividedinto two groups:

-   -   holdout sample (5%). This group was used for ranking performance        evaluation.    -   training sample (95%). This group was used for training the        ranking model.

All impressions, clicks, and purchases during a modeling time windowwere extracted from mobile logs generated during the particular timeperiod. An exemplary set of data features used for a mobile consumerlifecycle model to be generated from the extracted data are summarizedin Table 2.

TABLE 2 Exemplary Mobile Model Data Features price distance email DDO,conversion rate at P1 email DDO, conversion rate at P2-P5 email DDO,gross revenue rate at P1 email DDO, gross revenue rate at P2-P5 mobileDDO, conversion rate at P1-P2 mobile DDO, conversion rate at P3-P10category hour of day days since promotion launch mobile device typelogged in or not mobile engagement level gender subcategory engagementlevel

In embodiments in which the predictive model that is generated based onthe features is a combination random forest model (e.g., the randomforest model described with reference to FIG. 7), the relativeimportance of the model features can be represented by computing theensemble averaged depth weighted occurrence of each feature per randomforest in the model.

A recommendation engine, e.g., recommendation engine 115 of system 100,may be considered a special case of search engine, where the query isimplicitly “show me something interesting.” While a search engine isexpected to rank search results in order of relevance with the mostrelevant results at the top of the list, there is no expectation thatthe most relevant results returned from a search query will be relevantto the consumer in an absolute sense; e.g., a consumer could be queryingfor something unusual (e.g., a Brazilian restaurant), and the mostrelevant search result returned might not be as relevant to the consumeras when the consumer is querying for something common (e.g., pizza).

Recommendation engines are significantly different from search enginesin that the consumer expects that the returned recommendations should berelevant in an absolute sense. Otherwise, the consumer will stopbothering to check in with the recommendation engine, or start ignoringany messaging from the recommendation engine. When irrelevantrecommendations are issued, the consumer will regard this as “spam” evenif some relevant recommendations are sprinkled among the irrelevant ones(think “the boy who cried wolf”). In embodiments, this general problemfor marketing can be solved by implementing the concept of absoluterelevance thresholding.

In embodiments, absolute relevance can be defined as an absoluteprediction of a ranking target variable, e.g., the probability that theconsumer will purchase a particular promotion, or the probability thatthe consumer will click on content within an impression that representsa particular promotion. Implementing absolute relevance thresholdingraises the bar in terms of modeling methodology. For example, layerednaive Bayes classifiers will, in general, start to lose absoluterelevance prediction accuracy as the number of layered classifiersincreases. Simple boost factors added to predictive models, which maysolve a short term relevance problem, can completely erase absoluterelevance prediction capabilities.

FIG. 10 is a flow diagram of an example method 1000 for using absoluterelevance thresholding to optimize the discovery region for localpromotions available to a consumer. For convenience, the method 1000will be described with respect to a system, including one or morecomputing devices, that performs the method 1000. Specifically, themethod 1000 will be described with respect to its implementation withinthe workflow stages 340 in process 300. In embodiments, method 1000 maybe implemented in an additional workflow stage for discovery regionradius selection and associated promotion filtering.

In embodiments, optimizing the discovery region includes tuning thediscovery region size to eliminate irrelevant promotions before applyingmore computationally intensive algorithms to rank available relevantpromotions. In embodiments tuning the discovery region size may furtherinclude increasing the radius of local promotions to include if it isdetermined that not enough inventory of fresh promotions is very closeto the consumer.

In embodiments, the system receives 1005 input data representing arequest from a consumer, receives 1010 user data describing attributesof the consumer, and receives 1015 promotion data describing attributesof a set of available promotions for the consumer in the same way aspreviously described for steps 205, 210 and 215 in method 200. In someembodiments, the received user data and received promotion data mayinclude contextual data.

In embodiments, the system calculates 1020, based on adistance-independent relevance model, an initial absolute relevancescore for each of the set of available promotions using the promotiondata and the user data. For example, in some embodiments, adistance-independent relevance model may be a single decision treerandom forest model based on the features of prior consumer interest inthe promotion, price, and days since promotion launch. In embodiments,the distance-independent model may be used to predict the absoluteconversion probability for the set of available promotions early in aworkflow before computing any distance features.

In some embodiments, the set of available promotions optionally areranked 1025 based on their respective absolute relevance scores, and thesystem generates 1030 a subset of the available promotions by selectingpromotions having an initial absolute relevance score above an absoluterelevance threshold.

In embodiments, the system determines 1035 an optimal promotiondiscovery region size using the promotion data describing the subset ofthe available promotions. Determining the optimal promotion discoveryregion will be discussed in detail below with reference to FIGS. 11 and12.

FIG. 11 is a flow diagram of an example method 1100 for optimizingpromotion discovery region selection for local promotions available to aconsumer. For convenience, the method 1100 will be described withrespect to a system, including one or more computing devices, thatperforms the method 1100. Specifically, the method 1100 will bedescribed with respect to its implementation within step 1030 of method1000.

In embodiments, the system receives 1105 a set of initializationparameters: N_(deals), a target quantity of deals to be scored during aworkflow scoring stage (e.g., stage 344 in workflow stages 340 ofprocess 300) using a conversion rate model within the discovery region(a quantity, e.g., 300, that is large enough to allow for a goodbrowsing experience but small enough so that latency incurred by thescoring stage is below a maximum, e.g., 300 ms); I_(min), a minimumthreshold of conversion rate, e.g., 0.1%, considered to be interestingto the consumer within the discovery region; and x, an initial promotiondistance radius, e.g., a radius that was used as a search criterion whenextracting the initial set of available deals available to the consumer.

In embodiments, the system receives 1110 a set of available promotionsfor the consumer. Each of the set of promotions is located within thepromotion distance radius x and is respectively associated with aninitial absolute relevance score representing an estimateddistance-independent absolute conversion probability for the promotion,as described with reference to step 1020 in method 1000.

In embodiments, the system calculates a count 1115 of the availablepromotions that are associated with an initial absolute relevance scoregreater than or equal to I_(min). In embodiments, the system compares1120 the count to a scores count threshold value.

In an instance in which the count is less than the scores countthreshold value, the system increases 1125 the distance radius x toreceive 1110 a new set of available promotions for the consumer, locatedwithin the increased distance radius x and each respectively associatedwith an initial absolute relevance score, and repeats steps 1115 and1120. In some embodiments, the new set of available promotions isgenerated by implementing step 1020 of method 1000 in response to anotification that distance radius x has been increased.

In an instance in which the count is greater than or equal to the scorescount threshold value, the system compares 1130 the count to N_(deals).

In an instance in which the count is greater than N_(deals), the systemdecreases 1135 distance radius x, identifies 1140 a subset of theavailable promotions that are located within decreased distance radiusx, and repeats steps 1115 and 1120 using the identified subset ofavailable promotions.

In an instance in which the count is less than or equal to N_(deals),the process ends 1145.

FIG. 12 illustrates exemplary local merchant discovery frontiers for twoexemplary consumers. Consumer A lives in San Francisco, and Consumer Blives in Mountain View.

In embodiments, optimizing the discovery region for a consumer mayinclude determining a personalized local merchant discovery frontier. Asa consumer discovers more and more local merchants, the consumertypically will become knowledgeable about the merchants closest to them.At some point, a consumer will know all of the closest merchants, andthe consumer's discovery frontier will move further away from home.Depending upon the consumer's location, e.g., suburb or city, theconsumer's discovery frontier might be anywhere from a few miles away tomany miles away. Referring to FIG. 12, consumer A in the city of SanFrancisco will have many local merchants to choose from, and thereforeconsumer A's discovery frontier may only be a few miles in size. On theother hand, consumer B in the Mountain View suburb may already knowabout all of the local merchants in Mountain View, and there may not bemany other high quality merchants to discover even with a 10 mileradius. For this consumer, the discovery frontier could extend as farsouth as Santa Cruz, or as far north as San Francisco.

FIG. 13 illustrates an example 1300 of featured result set thresholdingusing absolute relevance. In embodiments, the optimum threshold for howmany promotions to feature in an impression may be implemented usingabsolute relevance. For example, in some embodiments, an initialimpression of available promotions is displayed to a consumer on a“feature tab” portion of the impression content display. Inclusion of apromotion in the feature tab will affect the impact of the impression ofthat promotion; the initial impressions a consumer sees encourageexploration of the rest of the content in general and are a drivingfactor for subsequent interactions with impressions.

In embodiments, a key parameter for the featured tab is how manypromotions of what type to show on the tab. If too many promotions areshown, the consumer may never explore beyond the featured tab and thusmiss out on relevant promotions. Conversely, if not enough of particularpromotion types are shown, the consumer may not be interest enough tocontinue browsing promotions.

In some embodiments, the featured tab has fixed caps on numbers ofvarious types of promotions (e.g., at most 5 goods promotions, at most 3travel promotions, at most 3 promotions launched more than 7 days ago).Using absolute relevance thresholding, determination of how manypromotions of what type to show on the featured tab for a particularconsumer may be based on a personalized ranking of the availablepromotions for that consumer instead of using fixed caps, as in example1300. In the example, calculations of the personalized ranking andthreshold are based on an accurate prediction of the absolute conversionrate for a particular consumer for each of the available promotions, asimplemented, for example, in method 1000.

FIG. 14 illustrates and example 1400 of two personalized promotionnotification triggers optimized for a consumer based on the consumer'spredicted absolute conversion rates for a set of available promotions.

In some embodiments, a consumer may receive notifications of availablepromotions based on absolute relevance. For example, the absoluterelevance predictive model inputs may include the local weather, day ofthe week, promotion category, and consumer prior category and locationinterest (based on previously collected consumer behavior includingclicks and/or purchases). The consumer receives a notification about anavailable promotion at the date/time when that consumer's predictedconversion rate for the promotion is above a conversion rate threshold,indicating that the consumer is more likely to purchase the promotion inresponse to the notification.

Turning to the example 1400, one notification about an activitypromotion is sent to a consumer on the Friday before a weekend in whichthe weather will be good for performing the activity, while a secondnotification about an available promotion for blue jeans is sent to theconsumer because the consumer's previous behavior includes searches forblue jeans.

FIG. 15 illustrates an example 1500 of a category-dependent priceboosting optimization for relevance scoring of promotions. As discussedpreviously with reference to FIGS. 3 and 6-8, in some embodiments,predictive models can be based on gross revenue instead of conversionrate. In embodiments, a measure of gross revenue is bookings, defined aspromotion price×conversion rate. In embodiments, it has been observedthat there is degradation of both bookings and conversion rate forpromotions if predictive model ranking targets are solely based onbookings. One explanation for this observation is that there are sessionlevel effects that render ineffective a simple per promotionoptimization for bookings. When a consumer first engages with animpression (e.g., a mobile user first opens a mobile app containingpromotion content), the consumer will be discouraged from continuing tobrowse through more promotion content in the impression if s/he doesn'tsee appealing promotions.

In this example, there are 3 category-dependent conversion ratemultipliers, each of which is characterized by a price threshold: online(P_(online)): online): $10 price threshold; food (P_(food)): $40 pricethreshold; and other categories (e.g. travel, health, beauty, etc.)(P_(high)): $160 price threshold. Each of the category-dependentconversion rate multipliers is the promotion price, capped at the pricethreshold for that promotion's category. In embodiments, a promotion'srelevance score, calculated based on a gross revenue model (i.e.,bookings), can be optimized using a category-dependent multiplier forthe promotion. In this case, where category-dependent multipliers arecapped at a price threshold, the optimized relevance score can beinterpreted to represent an estimated minimum quantity of bookings perimpression for that promotion. Adding a price threshold to acategory-dependent multiplier has the effect of suppressing promotionswith prices above the threshold, while maximizing bookings of promotionshaving prices below the threshold. Typically, the top-ranked promotionsfor each category will cluster around the price threshold set for thatcategory.

In embodiments, optimizing relevance scores using price boosting has thefollowing advantages: the rough order of deal categories shown on thepage can be determined based on the adjusted relevance scores; bookingsbelow the price thresholds can be optimized automatically; andengagement above the price thresholds can be optimized automatically.

In embodiments, a price boosting optimization using the conversion ratemultiplier is only applied to relevance scoring of promotions availableto highly engaged consumers (e.g., see model state 610 e in lifecyclemodel 600); promotions available to less engaged, disengaged,unactivated, or unlogged-in users do not have a price adjustment andtherefore are scored using the basic conversion rate. This targeting ofprice boosting for scoring of promotions for consumers determined to bein particular lifecycle states enables automatic optimization both foractivation of users who have not purchased yet, and for re-activation ofthose users who have become disengaged.

FIG. 16 is a flow diagram of an example method 1600 for using a priceboosting optimization for relevance scoring of promotions. Forconvenience, the method 1600 will be described with respect to a system,including one or more computing devices, that performs the method 1600.Specifically, the method 1600 will be described with respect to itsimplementation within the workflow stage 906 in workflow 900.

In embodiments, the system ranks 1605 a set of available promotions fora consumer based on their respective relevance scores, with eachrelevance score representing an estimated conversion rate per impressionfor the promotion.

In embodiments, the system adjusts 1610 each of the calculated relevancescores to represent an estimated minimum quantity of bookings perimpression for the promotion using price boosting, as discussed withreference to FIG. 15.

In embodiments, the system re-ranks 1615 the set of available promotionsbased on their respective adjusted scores.

FIG. 17 is a flow diagram of an example method 1700 for adjusting apromotion relevance score using price boosting. For convenience, themethod 1700 will be described with respect to a system, including one ormore computing devices, that performs the method 1700.

Specifically, the method 1700 will be described with respect to itsimplementation within step 1610 of method 1600.

In embodiments, the system receives 1705 a relevance score representingan estimated conversion rate per impression for a promotion and featuresrepresenting attributes of the promotion; the features including thepromotion price and the promotion category.

In embodiments, the system compares 1710 the promotion price to a pricethreshold associated with the promotion category. In some embodiments,the price threshold is determined based on one or a combination ofbusiness strategy (e.g., calculated in business rules stage 908 ofworkflow 900) and/or attributes of promotion performance and/or consumerbehavior. Business strategy is discussed in detail below with referenceto FIG. 19. In some alternative embodiments, the price threshold isdetermined based on a set of configurable parameters, as discussed indetail below with reference to FIG. 18.

In an instance in which the promotion price is greater than the pricethreshold 1715, the system caps 1720 the promotion price by assigningthe promotion price to be the price threshold. In an instance in whichthe promotion price is at or below the price threshold 1715, the systemdoes not cap the promotion price.

In embodiments, the system calculates 1725 a conversion rate multiplierfor the promotion by multiplying the relevance score by the promotionprice.

FIG. 18 illustrates an example 1800 of a second version of a priceboosting optimization for relevance scoring of promotions. In example1800, the conversion rate multiplier for a promotion is determined basedon a set of configurable parameters instead of being determined based ona fixed category-dependent price threshold parameter (see, e.g., example1600).

In example 1800, the configurable parameters are as follows: P_(T) isthe price point below which the price adjustment is applied to theconversion rate; P₀ is the lowest price point for the promotion category(e.g., in embodiments in which during feature extraction the price dataare aggregated into bins, P₀ is the lowest price point bin), and a is aprice exponent (in the special case of a=1, the bookings rate×the priceexponent corresponds simply to the bookings rate and thus this versionwould be implemented in the same way as the version illustrated byexample 1600).

FIG. 19 is an exemplary chart 1900 that illustrates the distribution ofbookings by price range for 7 promotion categories. Each category hasits own characteristic “sweet spot” price range for generating bookings(i.e., the price range for which the bookings generation peaks). In theexample 1900, travel generates most bookings above $100 and actuallypeaks above $640. In contrast, shopping generates most bookings below$40 and peaks in the $10-$20 range. The ideal price threshold parametervalue for a category should be close to the upper range of where thebulk of the bookings are generated for that category.

As described with reference to FIG. 17, determining the price thresholdfor a category may be based in part on business strategy. Inembodiments, for example, a promotion and marketing service may wish tode-emphasize online promotions as a strategic decision to focus onpromotions from local businesses. Since the bulk of the onlinepromotions occur in the “shopping” category, the price thresholdparameter for shopping is set at $10, which, as illustrated in example1900, is below the ideal value for optimizing bookings for shopping. Asa result, if category-dependent conversion rate multipliers are used toadjust the relevance scores of shopping promotions, the scores of theshopping promotions will be reduced, allowing other local promotions tobe ranked higher when promotions of all categories are ranked. Thehigher rankings may enable the local promotions to have more prominenceon the featured tab (e.g., see example 1300), which blends promotionsfrom various categories.

In embodiments, the optimum set of price threshold parameters for a setof promotion categories can be determined based on data collected fromlive traffic. In some embodiments, the multi-dimensional price thresholdparameter space can be sampled from multiple live user sessions byallowing a set of category parameters to vary randomly within a rangearound the initial values from every user session sampled. The optimumset of price threshold parameters can be measured and/or modeled basedon the collected data. Thus, the ranking target function used as apredictive model would now be a session level variable, e.g., bookingsper session instead of bookings per impression.

FIG. 20 shows a schematic block diagram of circuitry 2000, some or allof which may be included in, for example, recommendation engine 115. Asillustrated in FIG. 20, in accordance with some example embodiments,circuitry 2000 can include various means, such as processor 2002, memory2004, communications module 2006, and/or input/output module 2008. Asreferred to herein, “module” includes hardware, software and/or firmwareconfigured to perform one or more particular functions. In this regard,the means of circuitry 2000 as described herein may be embodied as, forexample, circuitry, hardware elements (e.g., a suitably programmedprocessor, combinational logic circuit, and/or the like), a computerprogram product comprising computer-readable program instructions storedon a non-transitory computer-readable medium (e.g., memory 2004) that isexecutable by a suitably configured processing device (e.g., processor2002), or some combination thereof.

Processor 2002 may, for example, be embodied as various means includingone or more microprocessors with accompanying digital signalprocessor(s), one or more processor(s) without an accompanying digitalsignal processor, one or more coprocessors, one or more multi-coreprocessors, one or more controllers, processing circuitry, one or morecomputers, various other processing elements including integratedcircuits such as, for example, an ASIC (application specific integratedcircuit) or FPGA (field programmable gate array), or some combinationthereof. Accordingly, although illustrated in FIG. 20 as a singleprocessor, in some embodiments, processor 2002 comprises a plurality ofprocessors. The plurality of processors may be embodied on a singlecomputing device or may be distributed across a plurality of computingdevices collectively configured to function as circuitry 2000. Theplurality of processors may be in operative communication with eachother and may be collectively configured to perform one or morefunctionalities of circuitry 2000 as described herein. In an exampleembodiment, processor 2002 is configured to execute instructions storedin memory 2004 or otherwise accessible to processor 2002. Theseinstructions, when executed by processor 2002, may cause circuitry 2000to perform one or more of the functionalities of circuitry 2000 asdescribed herein.

Whether configured by hardware, firmware/software methods, or by acombination thereof, processor 2002 may comprise an entity capable ofperforming operations according to embodiments of the present inventionwhile configured accordingly. Thus, for example, when processor 2002 isembodied as an ASIC, FPGA or the like, processor 2002 may comprisespecifically configured hardware for conducting one or more operationsdescribed herein. Alternatively, as another example, when processor 2002is embodied as an executor of instructions, such as may be stored inmemory 2004, the instructions may specifically configure processor 2002to perform one or more algorithms and operations described herein, suchas those discussed in connection with FIG. 1.

Memory 2004 may comprise, for example, volatile memory, non-volatilememory, or some combination thereof. Although illustrated in FIG. 20 asa single memory, memory 2004 may comprise a plurality of memorycomponents. The plurality of memory components may be embodied on asingle computing device or distributed across a plurality of computingdevices. In various embodiments, memory 2004 may comprise, for example,a hard disk, random access memory, cache memory, flash memory, a compactdisc read only memory (CD-ROM), digital versatile disc read only memory(DVD-ROM), an optical disc, circuitry configured to store information,or some combination thereof. Memory 2004 may be configured to storeinformation, data (including analytics data), applications,instructions, or the like for enabling circuitry 2000 to carry outvarious functions in accordance with example embodiments of the presentinvention. For example, in at least some embodiments, memory 2004 isconfigured to buffer input data for processing by processor 2002.Additionally or alternatively, in at least some embodiments, memory 2004is configured to store program instructions for execution by processor2002. Memory 2004 may store information in the form of static and/ordynamic information. This stored information may be stored and/or usedby circuitry 2000 during the course of performing its functionalities.

Communications module 2006 may be embodied as any device or meansembodied in circuitry, hardware, a computer program product comprisingcomputer readable program instructions stored on a computer readablemedium (e.g., memory 2004) and executed by a processing device (e.g.,processor 2002), or a combination thereof that is configured to receiveand/or transmit data from/to another device, such as, for example, asecond circuitry 2000 and/or the like. In some embodiments,communications module 2006 (like other components discussed herein) canbe at least partially embodied as or otherwise controlled by processor2002. In this regard, communications module 2006 may be in communicationwith processor 2002, such as via a bus. Communications module 2006 mayinclude, for example, an antenna, a transmitter, a receiver, atransceiver, network interface card and/or supporting hardware and/orfirmware/software for enabling communications with another computingdevice. Communications module 2006 may be configured to receive and/ortransmit any data that may be stored by memory 2004 using any protocolthat may be used for communications between computing devices.Communications module 2006 may additionally or alternatively be incommunication with the memory 2004, input/output module 2008 and/or anyother component of circuitry 2000, such as via a bus.

Input/output module 2008 may be in communication with processor 2002 toreceive an indication of a user input and/or to provide an audible,visual, mechanical, or other output to a user. Some example visualoutputs that may be provided to a user by circuitry 2000 are discussedin connection with FIG. 1. As such, input/output module 2008 may includesupport, for example, for a keyboard, a mouse, a joystick, a display, atouch screen display, a microphone, a speaker, a RFID reader, barcodereader, biometric scanner, and/or other input/output mechanisms. Inembodiments wherein circuitry 2000 is embodied as a server or database,aspects of input/output module 2008 may be reduced as compared toembodiments where circuitry 2000 is implemented as an end-user machineor other type of device designed for complex user interactions. In someembodiments (like other components discussed herein), input/outputmodule 2008 may even be eliminated from circuitry 2000. Alternatively,such as in embodiments wherein circuitry 2000 is embodied as a server ordatabase, at least some aspects of input/output module 2008 may beembodied on an apparatus used by a user that is in communication withcircuitry 2000. Input/output module 2008 may be in communication withthe memory 2004, communications module 2006, and/or any othercomponent(s), such as via a bus. Although more than one input/outputmodule and/or other component can be included in circuitry 2000, onlyone is shown in FIG. 20 to avoid overcomplicating the drawing (like theother components discussed herein).

Predictive recommendation engine module 2010 may also or instead beincluded and configured to perform the functionality discussed hereinrelated to the recommendation engine discussed above. In someembodiments, some or all of the functionality of predictiverecommendation engine may be performed by processor 2002. In thisregard, the example processes and algorithms discussed herein can beperformed by at least one processor 2002 and/or predictiverecommendation engine module 2010. For example, non-transitory computerreadable media can be configured to store firmware, one or moreapplication programs, and/or other software, which include instructionsand other computer-readable program code portions that can be executedto control each processor (e.g., processor 2002 and/or predictiverecommendation engine module 2010) of the components of system 100 toimplement various operations, including the examples shown above. Assuch, a series of computer-readable program code portions are embodiedin one or more computer program products and can be used, with acomputing device, server, and/or other programmable apparatus, toproduce machine-implemented processes.

As described above in this disclosure, aspects of embodiments of thepresent invention may be configured as methods, mobile devices, backendnetwork devices, and the like. Accordingly, embodiments may comprisevarious means including entirely of hardware or any combination ofsoftware and hardware. Furthermore, embodiments may take the form of acomputer program product on at least one non-transitorycomputer-readable storage medium having computer-readable programinstructions (e.g., computer software) embodied in the storage medium.Any suitable computer-readable storage medium may be utilized includingnon-transitory hard disks, CD-ROMs, flash memory, optical storagedevices, or magnetic storage devices.

Embodiments of the present invention have been described above withreference to block diagrams and flowchart illustrations of methods,apparatuses, systems and computer program products. It will beunderstood that each block of the circuit diagrams and process flowdiagrams, and combinations of blocks in the circuit diagrams and processflowcharts, respectively, can be implemented by various means includingcomputer program instructions. These computer program instructions maybe loaded onto a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, orother programmable data processing apparatus, such as processor 2002and/or predictive recommendation engine module 2010 discussed above withreference to FIG. 20, to produce a machine, such that the computerprogram product includes the instructions which execute on the computeror other programmable data processing apparatus create a means forimplementing the functions specified in the flowchart block or blocks.

These computer program instructions may also be stored in acomputer-readable storage device (e.g., memory 2004) that can direct acomputer or other programmable data processing apparatus to function ina particular manner, such that the instructions stored in thecomputer-readable storage device produce an article of manufactureincluding computer-readable instructions for implementing the functiondiscussed herein. The computer program instructions may also be loadedonto a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to causea series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or otherprogrammable apparatus to produce a computer-implemented process suchthat the instructions that execute on the computer or other programmableapparatus provide steps for implementing the functions discussed herein.

Accordingly, blocks of the block diagrams and flowchart illustrationssupport combinations of means for performing the specified functions,combinations of steps for performing the specified functions and programinstruction means for performing the specified functions. It will alsobe understood that each block of the circuit diagrams and processflowcharts, and combinations of blocks in the circuit diagrams andprocess flowcharts, can be implemented by special purpose hardware-basedcomputer systems that perform the specified functions or steps, orcombinations of special purpose hardware and computer instructions

Many modifications and other embodiments of the inventions set forthherein will come to mind to one skilled in the art to which theseinventions pertain having the benefit of the teachings presented in theforegoing descriptions and the associated drawings. Therefore, it is tobe understood that the inventions are not to be limited to the specificembodiments disclosed and that modifications and other embodiments areintended to be included within the scope of the appended claims.Although specific terms are employed herein, they are used in a genericand descriptive sense only and not for purposes of limitation.

1-24. (canceled)
 25. A computer-implemented method, comprising:receiving, from a computing device associated with a consumer, inputdata representing a request, the input data comprising a ranking targetvariable and a consumer location associated with multi-tier promotioncategories; receiving, from a user profile repository, user datadescribing attributes of the consumer; receiving, from a promotionrepository, promotion data associated with the multi-tier promotioncategories, the promotion data describing attributes of each availablepromotion of a set of available promotions associated with themulti-tier promotion categories; generating an initial absoluterelevance score for each available promotion of the set of availablepromotions using the user data and the promotion data, wherein theinitial absolute relevance score represents an estimated absoluterelevance probability associated with the ranking target variable;generating a subset of available promotions by selecting availablepromotions each having a respective initial absolute relevance scoreabove an absolute relevance score threshold; determining an optimalpromotion category tier-level for the consumer based on the consumerlocation and a total count of available promotions in the subset ofavailable promotions; generating an adjusted subset of availablepromotions based on the subset of available promotions and the optimalpromotion category tier-level; and transmitting the adjusted subset ofavailable promotions to the computing device associated with theconsumer.
 26. The computer-implemented method of claim 25, wherein theranking target variable is associated with a probability that theconsumer will purchase a particular promotion using the computing deviceor a probability that the consumer will click on an impression of aparticular promotion using the computing device.
 27. Thecomputer-implemented method of claim 25, further comprising: ranking theadjusted subset of available promotions based on their respectiveinitial absolute relevance scores.
 28. The computer-implemented methodof claim 27, further comprising: generating at least one personalizednotification trigger for the consumer using the ranked adjusted subsetof available promotions, the promotion data, and the user data.
 29. Thecomputer-implemented method of claim 25, further comprising: receivinginitialization parameters including a target number of promotions to beselected, a minimum estimated absolute relevance probability, and apromotion category tier-level associated with the consumer location;receiving a first subset of available promotions each associated withthe promotion category tier-level of the multi-tier promotioncategories; calculating a first count of the first subset of availablepromotions that are associated with an absolute relevance score greaterthan or equal to the minimum estimated absolute relevance probability;and in circumstances where the first count is greater than or equal to ascores count threshold, and in circumstances where the first count isless than or equal to the target number of promotions, selecting thefirst subset of available promotions to be ranked.
 30. Thecomputer-implemented method of claim 29, further comprising: incircumstances where the first count is less than the scores countthreshold, increasing the promotion category tier-level to include apromotion subcategory of the multi-tier promotion categories; receivinga second subset of available promotions each associated with theincreased promotion category tier-level of the multi-tier promotioncategories; and calculating a second count of the second subset ofavailable promotions that are associated with an absolute relevancescore that is greater than or equal to the minimum estimated absoluterelevance probability.
 31. The computer-implemented method of claim 29,further comprising: in circumstances where the first count is greaterthan the target number of promotions, decreasing the promotion categorytier-level to exclude a promotion subcategory of the multi-tierpromotion categories; receiving a third subset of available promotionseach associated with the decreased promotion category tier-level of themulti-tier promotion categories; and calculating a third count of thethird subset of available promotions that are associated with anabsolute relevance score that is greater than or equal to the minimumestimated absolute relevance probability.
 32. The computer-implementedmethod of claim 25, wherein determining the optimal promotion categorytier-level for the consumer includes determining a personalizedpromotion category multi-tier search for the consumer.
 33. A computerprogram product, encoded on a computer-readable medium, operable tocause data processing apparatus to perform operations comprising:receiving, from a computing device associated with a consumer, inputdata representing a request, the input data comprising a ranking targetvariable and a consumer location associated with multi-tier promotioncategories; receiving, from a user profile repository, user datadescribing attributes of the consumer; receiving, from a promotionrepository, promotion data associated with the multi-tier promotioncategories, the promotion data describing attributes of each availablepromotion of a set of available promotions associated with themulti-tier promotion categories; generating an initial absoluterelevance score for each available promotion of the set of availablepromotions using the user data and the promotion data, wherein theinitial absolute relevance score represents an estimated absoluterelevance probability associated with the ranking target variable;generating a subset of available promotions by selecting availablepromotions each having a respective initial absolute relevance scoreabove an absolute relevance score threshold; determining an optimalpromotion category tier-level for the consumer based on the consumer anda total count of available promotions in the subset of availablepromotions; generating an adjusted subset of available promotions basedon the subset of available promotions and the optimal promotion categorytier-level; and transmitting the adjusted subset of available promotionsto the computing device associated with the consumer.
 34. The computerprogram product of claim 33, wherein the ranking target variable isassociated with a probability that the consumer will purchase aparticular promotion using the computing device or a probability thatthe consumer will click on an impression of a particular promotion usingthe computing device.
 35. The computer program product of claim 33,further comprising: ranking the adjusted subset of available promotionsbased on their respective initial absolute relevance scores.
 36. Thecomputer program product of claim 35, further comprising: generating atleast one personalized notification trigger for the consumer using theranked adjusted subset of available promotions, the promotion data, andthe user data.
 37. The computer program product of claim 33, furthercomprising: receiving initialization parameters including a targetnumber of promotions to be selected, a minimum estimated absoluterelevance probability, and a promotion category tier-level associatedwith the consumer location; receiving a first subset of availablepromotions each associated with the promotion category tier-level of themulti-tier promotion categories; calculating a first count of the firstsubset of available promotions that are associated with an absoluterelevance score greater than or equal to the minimum estimated absoluterelevance probability; and in circumstances where the first count isgreater than or equal to a scores count threshold, and in circumstanceswhere the first count is less than or equal to the target number ofpromotions, selecting the first subset of available promotions to beranked.
 38. The computer program product of claim 37, furthercomprising: in circumstances where the first count is less than thescores count threshold, increasing the promotion category tier-level toinclude a promotion subcategory of the multi-tier promotion categories;receiving a second subset of available promotions each associated withthe increased promotion category tier-level of the multi-tier promotioncategories; and calculating a second count of the second subset ofavailable promotions that are associated with an absolute relevancescore that is greater than or equal to the minimum estimated absoluterelevance probability.
 39. The computer program product of claim 37,further comprising: in circumstances where the first count is greaterthan the target number of promotions, decreasing the promotion categorytier-level to exclude a promotion subcategory of the multi-tierpromotion categories; receiving a third subset of available promotionseach associated with the decreased promotion category tier-level of themulti-tier promotion categories; and calculating a third count of thethird subset of available promotions that are associated with anabsolute relevance score that is greater than or equal to the minimumestimated absolute relevance probability.
 40. The computer programproduct of claim 33, wherein determining the optimal promotion categorytier-level for the consumer includes determining a personalizedpromotion category multi-tier search for the consumer.
 41. A systemcomprising one or more computers and one or more storage devices storinginstructions that are operable, when executed by the one or morecomputers, to cause the one or more computers to perform operations,comprising: receiving, from a computing device associated with aconsumer, input data representing a request, the input data comprising aranking target variable and a consumer location associated withmulti-tier promotion categories; receiving, from a user profilerepository, user data describing attributes of the consumer; receiving,from a promotion repository, promotion data associated with themulti-tier promotion categories, the promotion data describingattributes of each available promotion of a set of available promotionsassociated with the multi-tier promotion categories; generating aninitial absolute relevance score for each available promotion of the setof available promotions using the user data and the promotion data,wherein the initial absolute relevance score represents an estimatedabsolute relevance probability associated with the ranking targetvariable; generating a subset of available promotions by selectingavailable promotions each having a respective initial absolute relevancescore above an absolute relevance score threshold; determining anoptimal promotion category tier-level for the consumer based on theconsumer location and a total count of available promotions in thesubset of available promotions; generating an adjusted subset ofavailable promotions based on the subset of available promotions and theoptimal promotion category tier-level; and transmitting the adjustedsubset of available promotions to the computing device associated withthe consumer.
 42. The system of claim 41, wherein the ranking targetvariable is associated with a probability that the consumer willpurchase a particular promotion using the computing device or aprobability that the consumer will click on an impression of aparticular promotion using the computing device.
 43. The system of claim41, further comprising: ranking the adjusted subset of availablepromotions based on their respective initial absolute relevance scores.44. The system of claim 43, further comprising: generating at least onepersonalized notification trigger for the consumer using the rankedadjusted subset of available promotions, the promotion data, and theuser data.
 45. The system of claim 41, further comprising: receivinginitialization parameters including a target number of promotions to beselected, a minimum estimated absolute relevance probability, and apromotion category tier-level associated with the consumer location;receiving a first subset of available promotions each associated withthe promotion category tier-level of the multi-tier promotioncategories; calculating a first count of the first subset of availablepromotions that are associated with an absolute relevance score greaterthan or equal to the minimum estimated absolute relevance probability;and in circumstances where the first count is greater than or equal to ascores count threshold, and in circumstances where the first count isless than or equal to the target number of promotions, selecting thefirst subset of available promotions to be ranked.
 46. The system ofclaim 45, further comprising: in circumstances where the first count isless than the scores count threshold, increasing the promotion categorytier-level to include a promotion subcategory of multi-tier thepromotion categories; receiving a second subset of available promotionseach associated with the increased promotion category tier-level of themulti-tier promotion categories; and calculating a second count of thesecond subset of available promotions that are associated with anabsolute relevance score that is greater than or equal to the minimumestimated absolute relevance probability.
 47. The system of claim 45,further comprising: in circumstances where the first count is greaterthan the target number of promotions, decreasing the promotion categorytier-level to exclude a promotion subcategory of the multi-tierpromotion categories; receiving a third subset of available promotionseach associated with the decreased promotion category tier-level of thepromotion category; and calculating a third count of the third subset ofavailable promotions that are associated with an absolute relevancescore that is greater than or equal to the minimum estimated absoluterelevance probability.
 48. The system of claim 41, wherein determiningthe optimal promotion category tier-level for the consumer includesdetermining a personalized promotion category multi-tier search for theconsumer.